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Cancellations Flatten in Absence of New Bookings

It’s a trend we have been witnessing in the Pulse Report for a couple of weeks now, cancellations are drying up.

The Pulse Report highlights the variance in volume of cancellations for future stay dates compared to same time last year (STLY) and broken down by stay month. It also show the most recent week’s new cancellations for future stay months for this year and last year.  

Reporting on APAC, EMEA, North America and LATAM, a lack of cancellations seems to be a global story.

“A lot of the cancellations at this point have hit rock bottom, whether you're talking about APAC, EMEA, North America or Latin America, we've all pretty much canceled,” explains Pulse Report Author, Daniel Lofton.

Hotels in North America were first hit with a flood of cancellations by March 2nd, with cancellations continuing to be pronounced for a period of about three weeks. However, since April cancellations have flattened in an absence of new bookings.

Latin America (LATAM) was the last region to be impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, and therefore its data tracks behind other parts of the world.

May has seen the region truly caught in the grips of the coronavirus pandemic. On May 8 Brazil emerged as a new global hotspot with more than 270,000 confirmed cases and 18,000 deaths. On May 24 the US banned travel from Brazil as the country’s reported death toll exceeded 23,000. 

By mid-May, Mexico had announced plans to begin lifting shelter-in-place recommendations in 300 municipalities, despite fears that the worst is still to come. By May 26, the country’s reported case count exceeded 71,000, despite plans to re-open tourist destinations including Cancun on June 1.

The Pulse Report showed that the initial wave of cancellations that hit Latin America in mid-March impacted stay dates through the summer months. However, more recent data has showed additional cancellation activity for stay dates into spring 2021, as the pandemic takes its toll.

In APAC, cancellations have remained flat since mid-April. A similar story is seen in EMEA, where the majority of European countries have announced lifting restrictions over the next two months.

Cancellations have flattened because new bookings have also flattened. However, Pulse Author Isabel Eisenach says hoteliers should not start dismissing cancellations data, but rather that this key metric could also be used to gauge confidence in future bookings.

“It also shows the volatility of some of the new bookings that are coming in. So we might be seeing new bookings coming in for the end of the year or early next year. But if you see maybe a week later cancellation of that business coming in, you might see that there isn't quite that much confidence in those bookings,” she explains.

The Duetto Pulse Report is based on weekly web traffic data from hotels using the Duetto platform. To subscribe for free and receive bi-monthly market demand signals for your part of the world and register here.


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