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Duetto Pulse Report

Edition 4, MAY 28, 2020

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Welcome to the latest edition of the Duetto Pulse Report, providing hoteliers around the world with free access to data that could prove helpful when quantifying changes in your region's demand.

Updated and distributed for free on a bi-weekly basis, the Duetto Pulse Report tracks changes in bookings, cancellations and web traffic to help hoteliers anticipate and plan for recovery.


The following data is divided into regions and all is representative of week over week changes.
For each region you will find the following data:

On the Books - New Bookings - Cancellations - Web Traffic


Jump to: APAC | EMEA | North America | LATAM

North America

Key Dates

 

JAN 21: US confirms first case in Seattle, WA

JAN 25: Canada reports first presumptive case in Toronto.

JAN 31: US restricts travel from China.

MAR 11: US announces travel restriction for Europe.

MAR 26: US leads the world in confirmed cases.

APRIL 17: US announces 3-phase plan for states to reopen.

MAY 22: By Memorial Day Weekend all 50 US states had lifted (or partially lifted) stay at home restrictions.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pace as of May 17)

This graph shows the variance of reserved status bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s on the books for future stay months for this year and last year. 

The on the books figures for North America show extraordinary weakness in pace for the summer months, which are vital to so many properties in the region.  However, pace recovery seems relatively attainable for parts of Q3 and Q4.

For 2020, pace is down 72 points overall compared to 2019.

One of the key property types we will keep an eye on in the coming weeks is casino resorts.  Regional casinos have always been powered by drive-markets, which is a traveler type we expect to power the immediate recovery for all hotels.  

For casino resorts, pace is down 73 points for the remainder of 2020; with the largest deficit in May 2020 at a decrease of 99 points. Aside from that, casino resorts remain largely in line with the overall trend of NA.  

It is important to note that the few casino resorts that have opened their doors, or are soon to do so, are seeing hyper-compression for their first open week (in some cases showing a forecast of ‘sold out’), which is a very positive sign of recovery. 

NA: Weekly New Bookings vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pick Up)

This graph shows variance in volume of new bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month.  

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new bookings for future stay months for this year and last year. 

For the majority of 2020 we see weak pick up in new bookings. 

Notably, week 11 (our most recent week of data) shows greater pick up for Q2 and Q3 2020 than the previous week 10; but week 11 is slower in pick up for Q4 2020 than week 10.  For the entirety of the data shown, pick up is behind by about 78% compared to STLY. Most of the new pick up came from transient business, with a small amount of short-term group business, which picked up in May 2020.

Casino resorts cumulatively showed no meaningful gain in pick up at an aggregate level because so many remain closed; this negates the great pick up we saw at the few properties that have re-opened or plan to in the near future. 

NA: Weekly Cancellations vs. STLY by Stay Month

This graph shows variance in volume of cancellations for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month.  

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new cancellations for future stay months for this year and last year.  

Similar to other regions, the most recent weeks of data (May 4th - 17th) show a consistent trend to prior weeks. The flood of cancellations hit North America by the 2nd of March (week ending March 15) and was most pronounced by the third week in the days following the U.S. national emergency declaration. Since then, the curve shows flattened cancellations and an absence of new bookings.

NA: Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new traffic for future stay months for this year and last year. As a percentage of the total, in darker blue we see regrets (users that search for stay dates in the hotel’s booking engine but leave without booking). This data is a strong indicator of future demand. 

Web traffic into North America continues to report week on week gains, which is certainly the most positive sign we are tracking. It is widely anticipated that transient leisure travellers will power the immediate recovery and this metric is a direct indicator of that.  Although a positive signal of demand, it is important to note that web traffic still shows a 91 point decrease against the same week last year. 

Casino resort web traffic has shown substantial week on week gains, similar to North American trends overall, but with a little more prominence. When we compare week 10 to week 11 (our most recent week), web traffic has more than doubled for this sector.

EMEA

Key Dates

 

FEB 21: Italy identified as emerging cluster as cases in the country's north quadruple.

MAR 8: Italy’s prime minister announces sweeping quarantine.

MAR 13-23: Large scale quarantine/restrictions across the continent.

APRIL 14: Austria reopens small shops, becoming one of the first European countries to loosen lockdown measures in response to the coronavirus. Germany announces similar plans towards the end of April.

APRIL 16: Germany & Denmark announce large events and gatherings will be banned up until August 31st.

May 6: Germany announced a staged approach to begin widespread loosening of restrictions. Hotels can reopen from the end of May / early June.

MAY 17: Majority of European countries have announced lifting restrictions over the next 2 months.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pace as of May 17)

This graph shows the variance of reserved status bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s on the books for future stay months for this year and last year. 

Without a significant increase in new bookings, the deficits to STLY continue to grow for Q3. From September onwards, while we are not in the historically strong booking window yet, there is little movement in confidence for future travel. Pace, while still considerably behind STLY, increases slowly but steadily.

EMEA: Weekly New Bookings vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pick Up)

This graph shows variance in volume of new bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month.  

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new bookings for future stay months for this year and last year. 

Despite restrictions being lifted across Europe, we do not see a significant increase in the volume of new reservations. 

Using June as an example for when many hotels expect to resume a form of operations, we observe that the regions have reacted very differently: 36% of bookings were for the DACH region, 26% for UK and Ireland, and only 2.5% for Southern Europe. New bookings in the domestic markets over the upcoming weeks, as companies define their paths for re-opening and ramp up communication, will be key in defining Q3 development and confidence for Q4

EMEA: Weekly Cancellations vs. STLY by Stay Month

This graph shows variance in volume of cancellations for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new cancellations for future stay months for this year and last year.  
The most recent weeks of data (May 4th - 17th) continue what has been observed since the middle of April - flattened cancellations in absence of new bookings.

EMEA: Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new traffic for future stay months for this year and last year. As a percentage of the total, in darker blue we see regrets (users that search for stay dates in the hotel’s booking engine but leave without booking). This data is a strong indicator of future demand. 

As announcements around restrictions being lifted in Europe, particularly for hotels and housing tourists, we see an increase in searches for stay dates in July to September over the past four weeks. Using the data from the week commencing April 20th, we see July searches double, August saw an 85% increase and we even saw 80% growth for September and October.

Focussing on the summer months, July - September, despite the region not seeing much materialized new bookings over the past weeks (May 4th - 17th), we have observed an average of 35% of total searches for Spain & Portugal.

In the short term, for June we saw 30% of total searches in the region for properties located in DACH countries. 

APAC

Key Dates

JAN 30: World Health Organization declares global emergency. China reports the virus has infected nearly 8,000 and killed at least 170 followed by a flight ban to and from the USA and China.

FEB 15: China reports dip in new cases.

MAR 11: China allows shops to reopen.

APRIL 7: Singapore implements renewed month-long lockdown.

APRIL 16: Japan declares a nationwide state of emergency.

APRIL 17: STR reports more than 90% of hotels in China are now reopened across all classes. Midscale and Economy have regained 50% of the occupancy achieved last year. Recovery generally is slowing down due to the lack of international flights.

MAY 3: China records 50M domestic tourist trips for the May Labor Day Bank Holiday. In 2019 this number was 200M

MAY 17: STR reports 45% occupancy actuals for open hotels sending data.

 

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pace as of May 17)

This graph shows the variance of reserved status bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s on the books for future stay months for this year and last year. 

The reality of the return of demand has settled in, meaning that pace compared to the levels of STLY remain behind for the rest of the year until international travel resumes. Weekly growing occupancy will shape the outlook going forward; STR has reported up to 45% in China and 23% for Australia in the week ending May 17th. Both are regions that are leading the release of temporary restrictions. 

Our future data shows that in the short term, for the month of May, the deficit year on year has gradually reduced in the past 4 weeks from 79% to 71% driven by last minute demand. 

In contrast, the deficit of bookings for the upcoming months of June to September compared to last year continues to increase as travellers as a whole are reluctant to plan more than two weeks ahead.

APAC: Weekly Cancellations vs. STLY by Stay Month

This graph shows variance in volume of cancellations for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month.  

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new cancellations for future stay months for this year and last year.  

The most recent data (May 4th - 17th) continues to show what has been observed since the middle of April - cancellations flatten through the end of the summer months.

APAC: Weekly New Bookings vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pick Up)

This graph shows variance in volume of new bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month.  

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new bookings for future stay months for this year and last year. 

New bookings continue to materialize mostly within a 30-day booking window. The upcoming 2-4 weeks show movement in all APAC regions. 

We can see the pace of bookings increasing going into the month. Taking May as an example, compared to the amount of bookings in week 8 (Apr 20th - 26th), bookings doubled in volume over the past 4 weeks. June bookings have increased by 29% in the past four weeks, two weeks before the start of the month.

APAC: Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new traffic for future stay months for this year and last year. As a percentage of the total, in darker blue we highlight regrets (users that search for stay dates in the hotel’s booking engine but leave without booking). This data is a strong indicator of future demand. 

The trend we observed from the new bookings data is mirrored in the volume of web traffic where the concentration is on stay dates for the next 4-6 weeks. 56% of traffic was for stay dates in May and June. 

LATAM

Key Dates

FEB 26: Latin America reports first case in Brazil.

MAR 17: Countries across Latin America impose restrictions on their citizens, including a nation wide quarantine in Venezuela.

APRIL 16: President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil fires the country’s health minister.

APRIL 19: Chile begins administering immunity cards to people who have recovered.

APRIL 21: Mexico announces “Phase 3” of mitigation as the country nears 9,000 cases.

MAY 8: Brazil emerges as a new global hotspot with more than 270,000 confirmed cases and 18,000 deaths. 

May 18: Mexico identifies 300+ municipalities to begin lifting shelter-in-place recommendations, despite fears that the worst is still to come. 

May 24: US bans travel from Brazil as the country’s reported death toll exceeds 23,000. 

May 26: Mexico’s reported case count reaches 71,000, despite plans to re-open tourist destinations including Cancun on June 1.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pace as of May 17)

This graph shows the variance of reserved status bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s on the books for future stay months for this year and last year. 

On the books pace for Latin America represents a large deficit against STLY, when we look at our most recent week of data.  

Although it is clear the summer cannot be recovered (pace-wise) at this point, there is still some hope for September and beyond.

It is worth noting that pace for the remainder of 2020 is down 65 points, which is not as bad as other regions shown in our Pulse Report (APAC comes in second this week at 67 points).

LATAM: Weekly New Bookings vs. STLY by Stay Month (Pick Up)

This graph shows variance in volume of new bookings for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month.  

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new bookings for future stay months for this year and last year. 

As countries within Latin America emerge as new hot spots for the virus, we see very little change in terms of new bookings reflected in the most recent weeks of data.

LATAM: Weekly Cancellations vs. STLY by Stay Month

This graph shows variance in volume of cancellations for future stay dates as compared to same time last year, broken down by stay month.  

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new cancellations for future stay months for this year and last year. 

As with all regions, this week’s cancellation activity shows little change from prior weeks. The initial wave of cancellations that hit Latin America in mid-March impacted stay dates through the summer months, while more recent weeks of data showed additional cancellation activity for stay dates into spring 2021.

LATAM: Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month. 

The small pop-out graph shows the most recent week’s new traffic for future stay months for this year and last year. As a percentage of the total, in darker blue we see regrets (users that search for stay dates in the hotel’s booking engine but leave without booking). This data is a strong indicator of future demand. 

Web traffic for Latin America is certainly pacing behind STLY - down 81 points versus the same week in 2019.  However, if we compare the most recent week (week 11) to the prior week (week 10), we see a 20 point increase in web shopping.  

It is worth noting that the week on week gains we see in LATAM as a whole does not translate to Mexico specifically. Mexico by itself is seeing steady declines week on week in web traffic.  

This report was written by Duetto Industry Experts

Hannah Weller Barrise

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Hannah is the newest member of Duetto's team of Solutions Engineers and brings with her nearly 10 years of Revenue Management experience. Prior to joining Duetto Hannah held the role of VP of Revenue at London-based Ennismore where she focused on the US expansion of the innovative hotel brand The Hoxton. Hannah's hospitality career also includes the roles of Regional Director of Revenue at Hersha Hospitality Management and Area Director of Revenue at Denihan in New York City.

Juan Ruano

Director of Hospitality Solutions, EMEA

Juan’s current role overseeing the Solutions Engineering function within the EMEA region at Duetto follows on almost 4 years in Customer Success supporting some of our most valued customers. Prior to joining Duetto he worked for a specialist Revenue Management consultancy supporting many of the best known hotels in London (United Kingdom). Juan’s hospitality career has included working in operations internationally for some famous hotel groups such as Mandarin Oriental, Como Hotels and Resorts and The Savoy.

Isabel Eisenach

Solutions Engineer, EMEA

Isabel joined the EMEA Solutions Engineer team coming up to a year ago and in parallel currently supports one Duetto Enterprise customer in a Customer Success role. Isabel’s hospitality career took her from a Swiss education through operational experience at well known properties such as the Mandarin Oriental Kuala Lumpur and The Landmark in London through to cluster Revenue Management roles. She joined Duetto after over three years as a consultant and Key Account Manager for a technology company specialized in integrating and processing hospitality data sources to provide solutions that support hotel teams in data aggregation and visualization.

Daniel Lofton

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Daniel has served in several roles throughout his time at Duetto over the last four years, with the lion’s share of his time spent in consulting, working in the field with Duetto customers to optimize their revenue strategy. Prior to that, he was a Director of Revenue Management at Landry’s Hospitality where he worked with both their gaming and non-gaming hotels. Over the course of seven years with them, he handled property openings, brand transitions, and expansions.