Duetto Pulse Report

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (October 5 - October 18).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

We continue to see short lead times for the region as a whole with a 14% increase in bookings for stay month October since the previous Pulse.

For November and December, while we see an increase in bookings, there is a higher rate of cancellations or shift of dates.

APAC comprises three main regions, Greater China, South East Asia and Oceania, all performing independently with their own intrinsic impacts.

• China: Travel confidence and bookings continue to grow week on week for the last three months of the year, with an increase since the last Pulse of 54% for October; 37% for November and 123% for December.
• Hong Kong: bookings patterns slightly differ from China and South East Asia, with the slowdown not as severe as other cities have experienced for October (-26%) and November (-12%). On a positive note we have begun to see an increase in net bookings for December (12%), since the previous Pulse Report. 
• South East Asia (SEA): Extremely short lead continues with an 11% increase on the previous Pulse for the stay month of October. With international borders remaining closed, countries in the region are solely reliant on domestic business, hence the number of new bookings are slowing down for upcoming months. There is a decrease in pace of new reservations for November (-41%) and December (-49%), since the previous Pulse. We have yet to witness any considerable movement for December in China and Hong Kong.
• Oceania: After tremendous increases over the school holiday period, the region generally remains stable Pulse on Pulse.

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

The strong pick up experienced over the last two weeks for the month of October allowed the overall deficit in business on the books for the APAC region to be reduced from -62% to -57%.

As highlighted in the pick up section above we have observed positive signs and higher confidence in new bookings for the remainder of the year which means that the deficit in business on the books compared to last year has decreased from -67% to -65% for November stay month and from -59% to -54% for December stay month.

The reported new pick up going into Greater China for the month October following Golden Week in China meant that the overall on the books deficit for the region decreased further from -62% to -54%. November and December saw some marginal reductions in on the books year over year deficit currently sitting at -78% and -74% respectively.

SouthEast Asia also saw the deficit against STLY on the books for October reducing from -71% to -66% and Oceania remains at -51%. South East Asia currently sits at -64% deficit on the books against STLY for November and -48% for December. Moving across to the Oceania region, it sits at -58% for November and -51% for December.

The pick up experienced over the last two weeks for the upcoming months allowed the overall deficits on the books for APAC to remain stable. October shifted from -57% to -55%; November holds at -65% and there is little change for December going from -54% to -52%.

China shows a change in October from -62% to -54%, highlighting the last minute pick up. November saw some marginal reductions in on the books year over year deficit, currently sitting at -72%, with December at -56%.

South East Asia and Oceania remain unchanged. South East Asia on the books for October saw marginal change from -66% to -65% while Oceania remains at -51% for October. South East Asia currently sits at -69% deficit on the books against STLY for November and -53% for December. Whereas the Oceania region sits at -57% for November and -49% for December.

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Web traffic levels remain stable and steady with some minor increases but the region as a whole increased on average by 10% for the upcoming three months compared to 19% in the previous edition of the Pulse Report.

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (September 7 - September 20).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

During the last edition of the Pulse Report we started to observe how pick up increases were somehow more moderate in the region after a long period of reporting consistent and substantial weekly increases in net pick up. This week as we measure data from Oct 05 to Oct 18 and COVID cases reported in Europe continue to increase, this trend has accentuated further and the pace of new bookings is clearly slowing down. October saw a further increase in net pick up of 31% (previous Pulse 168%); still a good last minute pick up however at a 5% lower ADR than in the previous Pulse Report.

If we compare the volume of net room pick up for these two weeks against the previous edition of the Pulse Report, the data shows a variance of -29% for November (previous Pulse was 106%) and December’s variance shows -22% (previous Pulse 40%).

Breaking it down by region within EMEA we observe the following trends:

• Southern Europe saw an increase in net pick up of 33% for October and similarly to Iberia, very slow pick up from November and an even greater number of cancelations than new bookings for December and January.
• The DACH region shows some more stability in terms of new pick up compared to other regions, however we observe that new bookings patterns are considerably slowing down (Pulse over Pulse) for the first time since hotels started to reopen back in June 2020. We can report a variance of -16% in net pick up for the month of October (previous Pulse 97%), -26% for November (previous Pulse 119%) and -28% for December (previous pulse 67%).
• The UK and Ireland continue to see low increases in new bookings. Net pick up for October increased by 34% (previous Pulse 98%), November increased by 5% (previous Pulse 30%) and December’s pace dropped by -29% compared to previous Pulse (previous Pulse -16%).

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to the same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As pick up has slowed down over the last two weeks, the deficit in the on-the-books business year over year increased across the region for the next few months with only the exception of October. October’s deficit improved by just 1%, now sitting at 71% year over year due to the continued strong last minute pick up (previous Pulse -72%). November is now at -79% year over year (previous Pulse -76%) and December is now at -69% year over year (previous Pulse -64%).

In terms of ADR performance for EMEA we observe October has so far accumulated a drop in ADR of -16% year over year. The only region which saw a higher ADR for this month compared to last year was Southern Europe (+19%). Looking at November and December we observe a -14% and -4% ADR respectively.

Taking a look at the breakdown within the region for the on the books vs STLY we see generally a gradual deterioration of the overall business outlook.

• Southern Europe saw the deficit of business on the books year over year marginally improve over the last two weeks from -70% to -67% for the stay month of October. Looking at future months, the deficit remains at -83% for the stay month of November and increased to -73% for the stay month of December (previous Pulse data showed -69% for December).
• Despite new bookings generally slowing down, Iberia saw the on the books deficit for the month of October also improve marginally from -85% to currently -82%. November currently sits at -88% (previous Pulse -83%) and December sits at -76% (previous Pulse -71%).
• For DACH, October’s deficit increased to -59% (previously at -55%). November’s deficit sits at -73% (previous Pulse -68%) and December at -65% (previous Pulse data was -59%).
• The UK and Ireland sit at -65%, a -72% and -64% variance compared to same time last year for October, November and December respectively (previous Pulse data was -64% for October, -67% November and -58% for December).

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

As previously reported and despite the growing number of COVID cases reported in EMEA there is evidently an appetite for travel, although based on this week’s data hotels are struggling to convert this appetite into bookings. Web traffic levels continue seeing positive increases across each region within EMEA. The whole region saw a 45% increase for the month of November and a 28% increase for the month of December compared to the previous Pulse edition. We also observe positive trends in terms of web traffic for 2021.

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancelations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (September 21 - October 04).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Net pick up of reservations into the North American market once again increased over the short-term booking window as we measure this Pulse (Oct 05 - Oct 18) versus our prior report (Sep 21 - Oct 4) with the noteworthy exception being the current month of October. Net gains for October were -2%, moving in the wrong direction in terms of pick up momentum week after week, while November (+55%), and December (+28%) and January (+28%) all made positive progress. As we look ahead to February through June of 2021, Pulse over Pulse results show a much less significant change with an average growth of less than 8%.

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to the same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

Pace across the North American region continues to be down across the entire 15 month period observed from October to December 2021 by 60%. The worst months pace-wise include the upcoming holiday season of November (-69%), December (-67%), and January (-70%). All three months actually saw a slight worsening of that pace since the previous Pulse Report. We do not see a positive pace again until September of 2021 and looking at the pandemic period specifically, March, April, and May of 2021 are pacing behind by 57%, 53%, and 38% respectively.

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

We continue to be fascinated by web shopping traffic and the fact that it remains well above the same point last year. In our most recent week of data (Oct 5 - Oct 18), all months from October 2020 through August 2021 are experiencing an increase of web traffic compared to the prior year.

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (September 7 - September 20).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Net pick up in Latin America continues to see signs of positive momentum, but still only for the very short-term. Following the previous Pulse Report’s growth in new bookings for October stays of 126% compared to the prior week, this week’s data shows a slowdown in growth, but continued movement with +9%. This trend continues into the 45-60 day window with November up by 44% and December up by 27%. Once we look ahead to January and beyond, we see a result ranging between nearly no growth to a slowdown as significant as -19% for stays in February.

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As we’ve consistently seen across the Americas, pace in LATAM continues to lag significantly behind last year. Though new bookings for October and November have provided a slight boost, it’s still not enough to drive improvement. October remains 54% behind STLY while November, December and January are behind by 50%, 42% and 51% respectively.

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Similar to what we saw in the prior Pulse Report, a noteworthy development for Latin America is that many months show total web traffic above last year. This week, however, we see a significant slow down in web traffic for stays in the month of October with a 19% decrease.