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Duetto Pulse Report

Edition 15, October 29, 2020

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Welcome to the latest edition of the Duetto Pulse Report, providing hoteliers around the world with free access to data that could prove helpful when quantifying changes in your region's demand.

Updated and distributed for free on a bi-weekly basis, the Duetto Pulse Report tracks changes in bookings, cancellations and web traffic to help hoteliers anticipate and plan for recovery.


Traveler Interest Holds Firm But Conversions Remain Flat

The latest edition of the Pulse Report shows that interest in travel is still increasing across most markets, with web traffic picking up strongly in North America and Europe. Bookings are also showing positive signs with strong last-minute pick up being reported in the APAC region. LATAM is also showing good pick up rates but only for the very short-term.

  • APAC

  • EMEA

  • North America

  • LATAM

Key Dates in APAC

JULY 8: Government of Victoria (Australia) announced Stay at Home Directions for Melbourne and Mitchell Shire.

OCT 2: Australia announces limited travel bubble allowing people from New Zealand travel to New South Wales and the NorthernTerritory from Oct 16th New Zealand's borders remain closed to all countries.

OCT 8: Singapore announces travellers from Australia and Vietnam will not have to quarantine on arrival. (Essential travel only.)

OCT 8: Japan and South Korea have agreed a travel corridor for business travel only with no quarantine on arrival. Travellers must be tested upon entry and be subjected to a controlled itinerary.

OCT 15: Hong Kong and Singapore announce a travel bubble, permitting all types of travel, including leisure. Launch date TBA.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_APAC-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (October 5 - October 18).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

We continue to see short lead times for the region as a whole with a 14% increase in bookings for stay month October since the previous Pulse.

For November and December, while we see an increase in bookings, there is a higher rate of cancellations or shift of dates.

APAC comprises three main regions, Greater China, South East Asia and Oceania, all performing independently with their own intrinsic impacts.

  • China: Travel confidence and bookings continue to grow week on week for the last three months of the year, with an increase since the last Pulse of 54% for October; 37% for November and 123% for December.
  • Hong Kong: bookings patterns slightly differ from China and South East Asia, with the slowdown not as severe as other cities have experienced for October (-26%) and November (-12%). On a positive note we have begun to see an increase in net bookings for December (12%), since the previous Pulse Report. 
  • South East Asia (SEA): Extremely short lead continues with an 11% increase on the previous Pulse for the stay month of October. With international borders remaining closed, countries in the region are solely reliant on domestic business, hence the number of new bookings are slowing down for upcoming months. There is a decrease in pace of new reservations for November (-41%) and December (-49%), since the previous Pulse. We have yet to witness any considerable movement for December in China and Hong Kong.
  • Oceania: After tremendous increases over the school holiday period, the region generally remains stable Pulse on Pulse.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_APAC-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

The strong pick up experienced over the last two weeks for the month of October allowed the overall deficit in business on the books for the APAC region to be reduced from -62% to -57%.

As highlighted in the pick up section above we have observed positive signs and higher confidence in new bookings for the remainder of the year which means that the deficit in business on the books compared to last year has decreased from -67% to -65% for November stay month and from -59% to -54% for December stay month.

The reported new pick up going into Greater China for the month October following Golden Week in China meant that the overall on the books deficit for the region decreased further from -62% to -54%. November and December saw some marginal reductions in on the books year over year deficit currently sitting at -78% and -74% respectively.

SouthEast Asia also saw the deficit against STLY on the books for October reducing from -71% to -66% and Oceania remains at -51%. South East Asia currently sits at -64% deficit on the books against STLY for November and -48% for December. Moving across to the Oceania region, it sits at -58% for November and -51% for December.

The pick up experienced over the last two weeks for the upcoming months allowed the overall deficits on the books for APAC to remain stable. October shifted from -57% to -55%; November holds at -65% and there is little change for December going from -54% to -52%.

China shows a change in October from -62% to -54%, highlighting the last minute pick up. November saw some marginal reductions in on the books year over year deficit, currently sitting at -72%, with December at -56%.

South East Asia and Oceania remain unchanged. South East Asia on the books for October saw marginal change from -66% to -65% while Oceania remains at -51% for October. South East Asia currently sits at -69% deficit on the books against STLY for November and -53% for December. Whereas the Oceania region sits at -57% for November and -49% for December.

APAC: Volume of Web Traffic by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_APAC-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Web traffic levels remain stable and steady with some minor increases but the region as a whole increased on average by 10% for the upcoming three months compared to 19% in the previous edition of the Pulse Report.

Key Dates in EMEA

JUNE 30: Following the closing of most borders in April 2020, EU formalizes borders reopening for 15 countries, excluding the United States, Brazil, China and Russia, among others.

JULY 25: UK starts introducing quarantine for travelers coming from some European countries, impacting travel trends across summer resorts in the EMEA region.

OCT 5: European capitals face a new set of restrictions as COVID cases rise across the region. Main european cities impacted by new restrictions are Berlin, Paris, Brussels and Madrid.

OCT 20: As COVID cases increase in Europe, Ireland became the first European country to announce a return to a full lockdown followed by Wales. Other European countries announce new restrictions on hospitality and entertainment businesses.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_EMEA-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (September 7 - September 20).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

During the last edition of the Pulse Report we started to observe how pick up increases were somehow more moderate in the region after a long period of reporting consistent and substantial weekly increases in net pick up. This week as we measure data from Oct 05 to Oct 18 and COVID cases reported in Europe continue to increase, this trend has accentuated further and the pace of new bookings is clearly slowing down. October saw a further increase in net pick up of 31% (previous Pulse 168%); still a good last minute pick up however at a 5% lower ADR than in the previous Pulse Report.

If we compare the volume of net room pick up for these two weeks against the previous edition of the Pulse Report, the data shows a variance of -29% for November (previous Pulse was 106%) and December’s variance shows -22% (previous Pulse 40%).

Breaking it down by region within EMEA we observe the following trends:

  • Southern Europe saw an increase in net pick up of 33% for October and similarly to Iberia, very slow pick up from November and an even greater number of cancelations than new bookings for December and January.
  • The DACH region shows some more stability in terms of new pick up compared to other regions, however we observe that new bookings patterns are considerably slowing down (Pulse over Pulse) for the first time since hotels started to reopen back in June 2020. We can report a variance of -16% in net pick up for the month of October (previous Pulse 97%), -26% for November (previous Pulse 119%) and -28% for December (previous pulse 67%).
  • The UK and Ireland continue to see low increases in new bookings. Net pick up for October increased by 34% (previous Pulse 98%), November increased by 5% (previous Pulse 30%) and December’s pace dropped by -29% compared to previous Pulse (previous Pulse -16%).

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_EMEA-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to the same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As pick up has slowed down over the last two weeks, the deficit in the on-the-books business year over year increased across the region for the next few months with only the exception of October. October’s deficit improved by just 1%, now sitting at 71% year over year due to the continued strong last minute pick up (previous Pulse -72%). November is now at -79% year over year (previous Pulse -76%) and December is now at -69% year over year (previous Pulse -64%).

In terms of ADR performance for EMEA we observe October has so far accumulated a drop in ADR of -16% year over year. The only region which saw a higher ADR for this month compared to last year was Southern Europe (+19%). Looking at November and December we observe a -14% and -4% ADR respectively.

Taking a look at the breakdown within the region for the on the books vs STLY we see generally a gradual deterioration of the overall business outlook.

  • Southern Europe saw the deficit of business on the books year over year marginally improve over the last two weeks from -70% to -67% for the stay month of October. Looking at future months, the deficit remains at -83% for the stay month of November and increased to -73% for the stay month of December (previous Pulse data showed -69% for December).
  • Despite new bookings generally slowing down, Iberia saw the on the books deficit for the month of October also improve marginally from -85% to currently -82%. November currently sits at -88% (previous Pulse -83%) and December sits at -76% (previous Pulse -71%).
  • For DACH, October’s deficit increased to -59% (previously at -55%). November’s deficit sits at -73% (previous Pulse -68%) and December at -65% (previous Pulse data was -59%).
  • The UK and Ireland sit at -65%, a -72% and -64% variance compared to same time last year for October, November and December respectively (previous Pulse data was -64% for October, -67% November and -58% for December).

Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_EMEA-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

As previously reported and despite the growing number of COVID cases reported in EMEA there is evidently an appetite for travel, although based on this week’s data hotels are struggling to convert this appetite into bookings. Web traffic levels continue seeing positive increases across each region within EMEA. The whole region saw a 45% increase for the month of November and a 28% increase for the month of December compared to the previous Pulse edition. We also observe positive trends in terms of web traffic for 2021.

Key Dates in North America

MAR 11: US announced travel restriction for Europe.

MAY 22: By Memorial Day Weekend all 50 US states had lifted (or partially lifted) stay at home restrictions.

SEPT 22: US death toll passes 200,000.

OCT 2: President Trump and the first lady tested positive for COVID-19.

OCT 18: TSA screened more than 1M passengers in a single day for the first time since March.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_NA-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancelations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (September 21 - October 04).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Net pick up of reservations into the North American market once again increased over the short-term booking window as we measure this Pulse (Oct 05 - Oct 18) versus our prior report (Sep 21 - Oct 4) with the noteworthy exception being the current month of October. Net gains for October were -2%, moving in the wrong direction in terms of pick up momentum week after week, while November (+55%), and December (+28%) and January (+28%) all made positive progress. As we look ahead to February through June of 2021, Pulse over Pulse results show a much less significant change with an average growth of less than 8%.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_NA-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to the same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

Pace across the North American region continues to be down across the entire 15 month period observed from October to December 2021 by 60%. The worst months pace-wise include the upcoming holiday season of November (-69%), December (-67%), and January (-70%). All three months actually saw a slight worsening of that pace since the previous Pulse Report. We do not see a positive pace again until September of 2021 and looking at the pandemic period specifically, March, April, and May of 2021 are pacing behind by 57%, 53%, and 38% respectively.

Volume of Web Traffic by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_NA-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

We continue to be fascinated by web shopping traffic and the fact that it remains well above the same point last year. In our most recent week of data (Oct 5 - Oct 18), all months from October 2020 through August 2021 are experiencing an increase of web traffic compared to the prior year.

Key Dates in LATAM

MAY 8: Brazil emerged as a new global hotspot with more than 270,000 confirmed cases and 18,000 deaths.

May 24: US banned travel from Brazil as the country’s reported death toll exceeded 23,000.

May 26: Mexico’s reported case count reached 71,000, despite plans to reopen tourist destinations, including Cancun, on June 1.

JUNE 13: Brazil is ranked second worldwide for Coronavirus cases.

JULY 9: Three heads of state now confirmed COVID positive: Bolivia, Honduras, Brazil.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_LATAM-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (September 7 - September 20).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Net pick up in Latin America continues to see signs of positive momentum, but still only for the very short-term. Following the previous Pulse Report’s growth in new bookings for October stays of 126% compared to the prior week, this week’s data shows a slowdown in growth, but continued movement with +9%. This trend continues into the 45-60 day window with November up by 44% and December up by 27%. Once we look ahead to January and beyond, we see a result ranging between nearly no growth to a slowdown as significant as -19% for stays in February.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_LATAM-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As we’ve consistently seen across the Americas, pace in LATAM continues to lag significantly behind last year. Though new bookings for October and November have provided a slight boost, it’s still not enough to drive improvement. October remains 54% behind STLY while November, December and January are behind by 50%, 42% and 51% respectively.

Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-33_LATAM-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Similar to what we saw in the prior Pulse Report, a noteworthy development for Latin America is that many months show total web traffic above last year. This week, however, we see a significant slow down in web traffic for stays in the month of October with a 19% decrease.

Want to know more about how these metrics can inform your strategy?


 

This report was written by Duetto Industry Experts

Hannah Weller Barrise

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Hannah is the newest member of Duetto's team of Solutions Engineers and brings with her nearly 10 years of Revenue Management experience. Prior to joining Duetto Hannah held the role of VP of Revenue at London-based Ennismore where she focused on the US expansion of the innovative hotel brand The Hoxton. Hannah's hospitality career also includes the roles of Regional Director of Revenue at Hersha Hospitality Management and Area Director of Revenue at Denihan in New York City.

Juan Ruano

Director of Hospitality Solutions, EMEA

Juan’s current role overseeing the Solutions Engineering function within the EMEA region at Duetto follows on almost 4 years in Customer Success supporting some of our most valued customers. Prior to joining Duetto he worked for a specialist Revenue Management consultancy supporting many of the best known hotels in London (United Kingdom). Juan’s hospitality career has included working in operations internationally for some famous hotel groups such as Mandarin Oriental, Como Hotels and Resorts and The Savoy.

Tasneem Mukadam

Director of Customer Success, APAC

With 15 years of experience in hospitality, specializing in Revenue and Distribution, Tasneem has been involved with streamlining and restructuring teams across international markets, implementing and creating policies and procedures, training and leading teams in developing revenue and distribution strategies and systems. Tasneem thrives on collaborating with dynamic teams, cultivating evolution and growth. She values developing strong relationships with foundations of trust and dependability.

Daniel Lofton

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Daniel has served in several roles throughout his time at Duetto over the last four years, with the lion’s share of his time spent in consulting, working in the field with Duetto customers to optimize their revenue strategy. Prior to that, he was a Director of Revenue Management at Landry’s Hospitality where he worked with both their gaming and non-gaming hotels. Over the course of seven years with them, he handled property openings, brand transitions, and expansions.