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Duetto Pulse Report

Edition 19, January 14, 2020

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Welcome to the latest edition of the Duetto Pulse Report, providing hoteliers around the world with free access to data that could prove helpful when quantifying changes in your region's demand.

Updated and distributed for free on a monthly basis, the Duetto Pulse Report tracks changes in bookings, cancellations and web traffic to help hoteliers anticipate and plan for recovery.


Markets Continue to Reel From Rising COVID Cases

APAC and EMEA markets have experienced low pick up over the last month compared to previous years amid continued uncertainty and rapid rises in COVID cases across the globe. However, NA and LATAM have recorded modest, yet relatively positive increases in pick up, although levels are still down compared to previous years.

  • APAC

  • EMEA

  • North America

  • LATAM

Key Dates in APAC

JAN 3: Thailand PM imposes new restrictions in 28 “Red Zone” provinces. Lockdown measures include travel restrictions, voluntary working from home, school closures and a ban on serving alcohol in restaurants.

JAN 9: Malaysia PM to announce new restrictions due to a spike in infections since September, with the number of daily reported cases climbing to record highs on two days this week.

JAN 8: Japan PM reiterated his request for restaurants to shorten business hours, 8pm closure and for people to work from home. It applies to Tokyo and the three surrounding prefectures of Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa.

JAN 11: Australia - Border closures between most states have been reinstated, due to new cases reported in NSW and QLD. International borders remain closed.

JAN 11: Mainland China - Biggest daily case rise in 5 months at 103 cases. Although the number is low compared to global figures, the response to containing the cases is swift and firm, in line with standard restrictions in China, including halting all traffic in and out of cities.

Duetto Pulse Live: EMEA/APAC

Jan Pulse EMEA-1

 

In this Duetto Pulse Live hosted by Duetto's Director of Content, Sarah McCay Tams, Juan Ruano, Duetto’s Director of Hospitality Solutions for EMEA and Pulse Report Author, offers his insights on December performance.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_APAC-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancelations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent calendar month (December 2020).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the prior month (November 2020).

Within APAC, the region is completely reliant on local domestic travel as it has been for the past months that we have been publishing the Pulse Report. Almost all countries' international borders remain closed and the vast majority have interstate/province travel restrictions in place. With this in mind we are looking at figures drastically lower than the previous two years.

  • Greater China: The region has seen extremely short lead times, having shrunk due to the travel restrictions and testing requirements in place. For the next three months we see the vast majority of net bookings made in December 2020 are for January 2021. The bookings for stay month January 2021 total more than the net bookings for the remainder of the year.
  • South East Asia: Net bookings made during December 2020 for the month of January 2021 are 50% less than in the two previous years, as can be expected with the void of international travelers into the region. However we recognize the domestic market support for the region where net bookings tripled in December 2020 vs November 2020, for the upcoming three months.
  • Oceania: For this micro-region we observe a change in booking patterns and behavior dictated by state borders opening and reclosing during December 2020. Despite the changes, January, February and March 2021 are all showing consistent healthy net bookings compared to the previous Pulse, showing some confidence to travel in these countries.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_APAC-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month over the last three months.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent month’s data.

APAC is showing encouraging data, the deficits on variances to last year are closing, continuing on from our last Pulse. We last reported January at -68% versus last year, this month we see this shift in a positive direction to -56% vs STLY. February from -71% to -63%. March at -59%

  • Greater China: January shows a 3% slide from -63% to -66%, while February's previous report is at -73% showing a fantastic improvement of -60%, due to the Lunar New Year holidays falling in February.
  • Oceania: Domestic, regional travel is supporting the countries with them not as reliant on international travelers as South East Asia. January at -30% v same time last year, February -47% and March -37%.

APAC: Volume of Web Traffic by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_APAC-Web-Traffic-2

graphs-pulse-report-jan-2021_APAC-Web-Traffic-4mos

 

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

With the Lunar New Year on the horizon, traditionally a time of travel in the region, we are seeing increased activity for February 2021.

 

Key Dates in EMEA

NOV 1: Germany, France and the UK walk into a lockdown following a rapid increase of COVID cases in the region.

DEC 8: UK rollout of COVID vaccine commences.

DEC 27: Vaccinations against COVID-19 begin across the EU starting shortly after Pfizer vaccine is approved.

JAN 6: EU approves Moderna vaccine and expects to accelerate vaccination roll-out across the region.

JAN 9: UK reports the biggest number of deaths in a single day since the pandemic began, increasing concerns that a long-term lockdown might be required.

Duetto Pulse Live: EMEA/APAC

Jan Pulse EMEA-1

 

In this Duetto Pulse Live hosted by Duetto's Director of Content, Sarah McCay Tams, Juan Ruano, Duetto’s Director of Hospitality Solutions for EMEA and Pulse Report Author, offers his insights on December performance.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_EMEA-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancelations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent calendar month (December 2020).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the prior month (November 2020).

Travel across Europe remains heavily restricted due to lockdowns applied at a country level across the continent. The positive news about vaccine roll-outs and new vaccines being approved has coincided with the 3rd wave of COVID infections resulting in further hotel closures and further uncertainty impacting consumer confidence.

Looking at net pick up experienced for the next two months we can observe how despite the challenges, December ended with a positive net pick up for January and February compared to November 2020 of 68% and 24% respectively. We need to always keep in mind that the numbers are very low in comparison to previous years, however the positive last minute pick up mostly driven by essential and domestic travel remains there. To put this in perspective, the net pick up for January 2021 recorded during December 2020 represents only 10% of the pick up recorded during the same period last year.

COVID infection news has negatively impacted the volume of pick up from March 2021 and beyond. Looking at the net pick up recorded in December 2020 for those months we see the volume of pick up consistently dropping compared to the ones recorded in November 2020.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_EMEA-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month over the last three months.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent month’s data.

The pick up evolution reflected in the previous graph for the upcoming months paints a tough outlook. The business on the books at the end of December 2020 for January, February and March 2021 sits at -85%, -81% and -72% respectively. As the year progresses and vaccine plans are rolled out we will be able to assess the period in which business starts returning and the volume of demand as it is expected that some restrictions on international travel will remain in place for a while.

The situation described above at the EMEA region level is reflected across each one of the micro-regions, perhaps it’s worth highlighting that despite the news coming from the UK and Ireland this region is proving to be somehow more resilient in comparison, -78%, -64% and -51% current business on the books for January, February and March 2021 compared to STLY.

Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_EMEA-Web-Traffic

graphs-pulse-report-jan-2021_EMEA-Web-Traffic-4mos

 

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

December has been a very quiet month in terms of web searches for 2021, high levels of uncertainty and the Christmas holidays have had a negative impact on this key metric. January is the only month where we have observed a positive increase of 29% comparing December 2020 to November 2020. Unfortunately, the rest of the month shows a drop in web searches. February dropped by 4% and March by 23%.

We continue monitoring this metric in the EMEA region but under the circumstances and the available data it feels premature to start looking for signs of recovery via customer appetite to travel.

Key Dates in North America

MAR 11: US announced travel restriction for Europe.

MAY 22: By Memorial Day Weekend all 50 US states had lifted (or partially lifted) stay at home restrictions.

NOV 7: Joe Biden named the projected winner of the 2020 presidential election.

NOV 19: CDC updated Thanksgiving travel guidance with recommendation to postpone or stay home.

DEC 11: US granted its first emergency use authorization for COVID-19 vaccine to Pfizer-BioNTech.

DEC 24: TSA announced 1.2M people flew in the US, the highest since March 2020.

JAN 8: US surpassed 22M cases and 374,000 deaths.

Duetto Pulse Live: NA/LATAM

Jan Pulse NA LATAM-1

 

In this Duetto Pulse Live hosted by Duetto's Director of Content, Sarah McCay Tams, Duetto’s Director of Hospitality Solutions for the Americas, Hannah Weller Barrise, offers her insights on December performance.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_NA-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month-1

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancelations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent calendar month (December 2020).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the prior month (November 2020).

New bookings for travel across North America remains low due in part to increased risk of COVID exposure and continued state by state travel restrictions. Similar to what’s observed across Europe, positive news about vaccine roll-outs coinciding with news of new more contagious strains and surging numbers appears to be resulting in increased uncertainty in consumer confidence.

Looking at net pick up for future stay months, we see that December 2020 delivered positive momentum in net new bookings for stays in all future months, beginning January 2021. Pick up for January, February, and March 2021 stays (booked in December, as compared to what had been booked the prior month in November 2020) was up 193%, 91%, and 103% respectively. While of course we need to keep in mind that the absolute numbers are very low in comparison to prior years, the continued positive momentum in month over month pick up trends is a welcome outcome.

While across Europe the COVID infection news negatively impacted the volume of pick up from March 2021 and beyond (new bookings actually slowing down as compared to prior months), in North America we see a slightly more positive result. While new bookings made in December were most concentrated for stays in the short-term, the 60+ day window did see month over month movement in the right direction, just at a slower rate than the shorter term. Bookings for April and May stays across the region as a whole grew month over month by 88% and 55% respectively, while the following six month period (from June through November 2021) new bookings grew at an average of just 44.8%.

Diving deeper into a few specific states, we continue to see the wide range of performance across the region:

  • Florida continues to shine as an outperformer, with net new bookings made in December 2020 for stays in January 2021 more than tripling (+341%). Winter stays in February and March also grew substantially, up 179% and 146% respectively.
  • Colorado, Utah, and other ski destinations also outperformed the region's average with new bookings more than doubling in the short-term.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_NA-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month over the last three months.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent month’s data.

Pace remains consistently low, with business on the books as of the end of December 2020 for January, February and March 2021 sitting at -71%, -69% and -60% respectively. As the year progresses and vaccine plans are rolled out we will be able to assess the period in which business starts returning and the volume of demand as it is expected that some restrictions on international travel will remain in place for a while.

Volume of Web Traffic by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_NA-Web-Traffic

graphs-pulse-report-jan-2021_NA-Web-Traffic-4mos

 

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Looking at web traffic behavior for future stays in North America, we see that December 2020 delivered positive momentum in terms of the volume of total searches for stays beginning January 2021. Searches for January and February 2021 stays (searched in December, as compared to what had been searched the prior month in November 2020) were up by 82% and 131% respectively.

While across Europe the travel restrictions proved to have a meaningful impact on consumer demand and confidence for future travel, in North America we see a slightly more positive result. While web searches made in December were mostly concentrated for stays in the short-term, the 60+ day window did show month over month movement in the right direction, just at a slower rate than the shorter term. Searches for March and April stays across the region as a whole grew month over month by 44% and 26% respectively, while the following six month period (from May through October 2021) searches grew at an average of 11.5%.

As vaccination timelines continue to evolve, we’ll continue to watch closely as consumer confidence begins to grow for stays in the late summer and fall of 2021.

Key Dates in LATAM

MAY 8: Brazil emerged as a new global hotspot with more than 270,000 confirmed cases and 18,000 deaths.

May 24: US banned travel from Brazil as the country’s reported death toll exceeded 23,000.

May 26: Mexico’s reported case count reached 71,000, despite plans to reopen tourist destinations, including Cancun, on June 1.

JULY 9: Three heads of state now confirmed COVID positive: Bolivia, Honduras, Brazil.

OCT 10: Brazil passed 150,000 deaths, the 2nd highest death rate after the US.

DEC 21: Brazil first country to complete phase III of China’s SinoVac vaccine. Reports efficacy rate of at least 50%.

DEC 24: Mexico began its first vaccine campaign with Pfizer-BioNTech.

Duetto Pulse Live: NA/LATAM

Jan Pulse NA LATAM-1

 

In this Duetto Pulse Live hosted by Duetto's Director of Content, Sarah McCay Tams, Duetto’s Director of Hospitality Solutions for the Americas, Hannah Weller Barrise, offers her insights on December performance.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_LATAM-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancelations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent calendar month (December 2020).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the prior month (November 2020).

As we look across the Latin American market we see that net new bookings made in the month of December 2020 for stays over the next twelve months (vs the same period in November) are up by only the slightest margin.

January saw a relatively healthy percentage growth of 88%, but considering the size of the absolute numbers the month over month change was not what we wanted to see. February through August grew by an average of only 15.7% while September actually moved in the wrong direction, with a slowdown in net new booking activity of -3% as compared to what had been booked in the month of November 2020.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_LATAM-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month over the last three months.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent month’s data.

Latin America's pace deficit to the same time last year continues to show a significant shortfall.

In December 2020 pace for future stay months finished at -50% for January 2021, -51% for February 2021, and -35% for March 2021.

Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

Update-Duetto_Pulse_Report_12_20-1_21_LATAM-Web-Traffic

graphs-pulse-report-jan-2021_LATAM-Web-Traffic-4mos

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Looking at web traffic behavior for future stays in Latin America, we see a slowdown in momentum in terms of searches made in December 2020 compared to searches made in the prior month (November 2020). While technically web traffic grew from month to month, it grew at a significantly slower rate. For example, in November 2020 web traffic for January 2021 stays increased from Pulse to Pulse at a rate of over 100%, but in December 2020 that same stay period of January 2021 saw an increase in volume of only 24%. Searches for February and March 2021 stays (searched in December, as compared to what had been searched the prior month in November 2020) also slowed significantly with growth of only 24% and 21% respectively.

While in North America we see a slightly more promising result with the six month period (from May through October 2021) searches growing at an average of 11.5%, the forward looking data in LATAM suggests an even bumpier road ahead with an average month over month growth of only 4%.

Want to know more about how these metrics can inform your strategy?


 

This report was written by Duetto Industry Experts

Hannah Weller Barrise

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Hannah is the newest member of Duetto's team of Solutions Engineers and brings with her nearly 10 years of Revenue Management experience. Prior to joining Duetto Hannah held the role of VP of Revenue at London-based Ennismore where she focused on the US expansion of the innovative hotel brand The Hoxton. Hannah's hospitality career also includes the roles of Regional Director of Revenue at Hersha Hospitality Management and Area Director of Revenue at Denihan in New York City.

Juan Ruano

Director of Hospitality Solutions, EMEA

Juan’s current role overseeing the Solutions Engineering function within the EMEA region at Duetto follows on almost 4 years in Customer Success supporting some of our most valued customers. Prior to joining Duetto he worked for a specialist Revenue Management consultancy supporting many of the best known hotels in London (United Kingdom). Juan’s hospitality career has included working in operations internationally for some famous hotel groups such as Mandarin Oriental, Como Hotels and Resorts and The Savoy.

Tasneem Mukadam

Director of Customer Success, APAC

With 15 years of experience in hospitality, specializing in Revenue and Distribution, Tasneem has been involved with streamlining and restructuring teams across international markets, implementing and creating policies and procedures, training and leading teams in developing revenue and distribution strategies and systems. Tasneem thrives on collaborating with dynamic teams, cultivating evolution and growth. She values developing strong relationships with foundations of trust and dependability.

Daniel Lofton

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Daniel has served in several roles throughout his time at Duetto over the last four years, with the lion’s share of his time spent in consulting, working in the field with Duetto customers to optimize their revenue strategy. Prior to that, he was a Director of Revenue Management at Landry’s Hospitality where he worked with both their gaming and non-gaming hotels. Over the course of seven years with them, he handled property openings, brand transitions, and expansions.