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Duetto Pulse Report

Edition 9, August  6, 2020

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Welcome to the latest edition of the Duetto Pulse Report, providing hoteliers around the world with free access to data that could prove helpful when quantifying changes in your region's demand.

Updated and distributed for free on a bi-weekly basis, the Duetto Pulse Report tracks changes in bookings, cancellations and web traffic to help hoteliers anticipate and plan for recovery.


Consumer Uncertainty Continues To Depress Hotel Bookings

Short-term booking trends continue as consumer confidence remains uncertain. This is also being witnessed in web traffic trends, where there is a clear desire to travel but little to no commitment on bookings. Consumers are looking but not booking. As such, all regions remain sharply behind STLY.

  • APAC

  • EMEA

  • North America

  • LATAM

Key Dates in APAC

MAY 3: China records 50M domestic tourist trips for the May Labor Day Bank Holiday. In 2019 this number was 200M.

JUNE 18: STR reports China occupancy plateau continues into 6th week at 50%, with a slight jump above 50% that quickly fell again due to regional increases of new cases.

JULY 8: Government of Victoria (Australia) announced Stay at Home Directions for Melbourne and Mitchell Shire.

JULY 26-31: Regional flares reported across multiple cities and countries including Hong Kong, Singapore and Vietnam, among others.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_APAC-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

Looking at OTB, once again the short term pick up helps to reduce the gap to STLY for the region as we start into the month of August. The last Pulse Report (looking at June 29 to July 12) had August at 70% and at this point in time (July 13-26) it is at 68% behind STLY. September, October and November are at 67%, 57% and 55% respectively. Based on the slowing trend for net pick up, monitoring the development of the remainder of Q3 as well as Q4 will perhaps see a reverse of this trend.

Greater China improved from a 74% deficit to 71% compared to STLY. Similarly in South East Asia we see an improvement from 74% to 72%.

Likely due to Victoria reinstating lockdown measures, Oceania did not show a positive development when compared to STLY values with the difference increasing from 56% to 59% for August.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_APAC-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (July 13-26).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Going into the month of August, we observe a 95% increase in net pick up for August stay dates compared to the last Pulse Report (June 29 to July 12), which is in line with the short-term trend we have observed in the past few months.

Despite reports of new outbreaks in the region, bookings with lead times within the upcoming 3-4 weeks are still coming in. Regionally, we see the biggest increase coming from the Greater China region with a 199% increase.

However, looking beyond the current month, net pick up slowed significantly compared to the previous Pulse Report. September shows 40% less pick up, while pick up for October, November and December has decreased 70%. Relevant to note, this is not due to an increase in cancellations but less new bookings, specifically in the South East Asia region where net pick up for those months dropped by 78% since the last Pulse Report.

Within our reporting between the end of April and June, we have been seeing on average 29% increases in net pick up. The most recent two weeks of data (July 13-26) we are focusing on in this Pulse edition, however, only showed an average 8% increase in bookings for stay dates in July through to the end of 2021.

APAC: Volume of Web Traffic by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_APAC-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Compared to the last edition of the Pulse Report, where we continued to see growing consumer confidence as reflected by increasing web traffic, although being concentrated in the immediate three month window.

The past two weeks of data (July 13-26) do not see this trend continuing. On average, for stay dates in August, September and October, we observe an increase of 4%, however this is only positive because of a 16% increase for August stay dates while September and October show 1% and 4% decreases respectively.

Key Dates in EMEA

JUNE 17: Germany extends ban on large events and gatherings through the end of October, which could affect events such as the Frankfurt Book Fair.

JUNE 30: EU formalizes borders reopening for 15 countries, excluding the United States, Brazil, China and Russia, among others.

JULY 4: Reopening of hotels and restaurants within England and Northern Ireland, followed by Wales on July 13 and Scotland on July 15.

JULY 25: UK announces introduction of quarantine for all travelers coming from Spain (NOTE: This week’s data only goes until JULY26 so the effects of this will likely only be represented in the next edition of the Pulse).

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_EMEA-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

After some weeks where we observed the region reduction of deficit compared to STLY, the past weeks of data show an increase. August pace increased from 60% to 62% behind STLY, September increased from 56% to 61% and October from 45% to 53%.

While the UK & Ireland saw a reduction in deficit for August from 72% to 69%, likely due to the pent up travel demand as the region opened much later than mainland Europe, September and October saw an increase in deficit. To highlight the difference in regional vs city performance, we have London at 90% behind STLY for August while regional properties are at 42% behind STLY.

Similarly for DACH, the last minute pick up is helping August’s deficits decrease down from 57% to 55% since the last edition of the Pulse Report. However, we can see how consumers are averse to making plans beyond the next few weeks. The deficit in pace for September and October grew marginally from 55% and 50% to 59% and 54% respectively since the previous edition of the Pulse report.

Southern Europe showed the same trend with August improving from 68% to 64% but September and October increasing from 71% and 65% to 75% and 71% deficit versus STLY.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_EMEA-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (July 13-26).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Going into August following some weeks of relative stability, we see positive trends for all stay months until the end of the year in terms of net pick up for the region. Focusing on the upcoming three months, August increased by 52%, September and October by 26 and 27% respectively.

The UK & Ireland increased from 44% and 14% to 80% and 55% for stay dates in August and September respectively. DACH sees consistent growth with 66% on average net pick up increase for the upcoming three months compared to the last Pulse report (June 29 to July 12).

Southern Europe continues to see growth as well with an 88% increase in net pick up for August and 130% for September. Moving forward, we expect that the new outbreaks and government restrictions developing from July 25 across the region will have significant negative impacts on the stable developments we are reporting now.

Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_EMEA-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Web searches continue to increase for immediate future months in line with what we have seen in the past editions of the Pulse with increases of 47%, 22% and 17% for August, September and October respectively, compared to the last Pulse Report (June 29 to July 12).

We continue to monitor the evolution of this key metric but generally speaking we would like to see growing consumer confidence reflected in higher appetite (hotel searches) to book across the region which would surely convert into a larger volume of net bookings. Considering the recent events following July 25 it will be key to observe if a pivot from Europe-wide travel back to domestic only will impact hotel search volumes by country.

Key Dates in North America

MAR 11: US announced travel restriction for Europe.

MAR 26: US led the world in confirmed cases.

MAY 22: By Memorial Day Weekend all 50 US states had lifted (or partially lifted) stay at home restrictions.

JULY 8: US reached 3M confirmed cases.

JULY 11: Disney World in Orlando, FL reopened.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_NA-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As net new bookings (shown above) continue to lag behind last year, it is no surprise that the pace shown here is not recovering at any meaningful speed. August and September remain more than 50% behind STLY and despite October and November’s slight improvement in new bookings compared to the previous Pulse Report, Q4 2020 as a whole remains 46% behind.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_NA-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Moving into the month of August, we see a slowdown in short-term bookings across the region. New bookings for stays in both August and September saw a slowdown as compared to the most recent Pulse Report (June 29 to July 12), while the slightly longer term bookings window saw an uptick with stays for October and November increasing since the prior weeks by 32% and 34% respectively.

Volume of Web Traffic by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_NA-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Interestingly, despite the slowdown in new bookings for the short-term stay window, web traffic suggests there was interest. Website visits for both August and September doubled as compared to previous weeks. It will be interesting to see if in the weeks to come these visits end up converting into new bookings for stays in North America.

Key Dates in LATAM

MAY 8: Brazil emerged as a new global hotspot with more than 270,000 confirmed cases and 18,000 deaths.

May 24: US banned travel from Brazil as the country’s reported death toll exceeded 23,000.

May 26: Mexico’s reported case count reached 71,000, despite plans to reopen tourist destinations, including Cancun, on June 1.

JUNE 13: Brazil is ranked second worldwide for Coronavirus cases.

JULY 9: Three heads of state now confirmed COVID positive: Bolivia, Honduras, Brazil.

On The Books vs. STLY by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_LATAM-OTB

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As with the other regions of the world, LATAM remains significantly behind in terms of OTB reservations as compared to STLY. This is expected to continue until we see a substantial increase in new booking activity across the region.

Weekly Net Pick Up by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_LATAM-Weekly Net Pickup by Stay Month

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

LATAM continues to face difficulty with new bookings. The most recent two weeks of data (July 13-26) show a further slowdown in new booking activity for the region, with August now slowing by an additional 41% as compared to the prior two weeks. All future months show this slowdown to varying degrees. September 2020 shows the least amount of drop off with only a 4% dip compared to the prior weeks of data, while November and December show the most significant slowdown at 73% and 71% respectively.

Weekly Volume of Web Traffic Searches by Stay Month

Duetto_Pulse_Report_Week-21_LATAM-Web-Traffic

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Interestingly, we see a similar trend in the most recent data in LATAM to what we see in North America. Despite a slowdown in new bookings, web traffic shows a significant increase in visits for the short-term window. Visits for stays in the month of August show an increase compared to the previous weeks of 190%. Both September and October also show healthy increases in web traffic, 106% and 60% respectively. As with North America, it will be interesting to see if and when these visits begin to convert in a meaningful way.

Want to know more about how these metrics can inform your strategy?


 

This report was written by Duetto Industry Experts

Hannah Weller Barrise

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Hannah is the newest member of Duetto's team of Solutions Engineers and brings with her nearly 10 years of Revenue Management experience. Prior to joining Duetto Hannah held the role of VP of Revenue at London-based Ennismore where she focused on the US expansion of the innovative hotel brand The Hoxton. Hannah's hospitality career also includes the roles of Regional Director of Revenue at Hersha Hospitality Management and Area Director of Revenue at Denihan in New York City.

Juan Ruano

Director of Hospitality Solutions, EMEA

Juan’s current role overseeing the Solutions Engineering function within the EMEA region at Duetto follows on almost 4 years in Customer Success supporting some of our most valued customers. Prior to joining Duetto he worked for a specialist Revenue Management consultancy supporting many of the best known hotels in London (United Kingdom). Juan’s hospitality career has included working in operations internationally for some famous hotel groups such as Mandarin Oriental, Como Hotels and Resorts and The Savoy.

Isabel Eisenach

Solutions Engineer, EMEA

Isabel joined the EMEA Solutions Engineer team coming up to a year ago and in parallel currently supports one Duetto Enterprise customer in a Customer Success role. Isabel’s hospitality career took her from a Swiss education through operational experience at well known properties such as the Mandarin Oriental Kuala Lumpur and The Landmark in London through to cluster Revenue Management roles. She joined Duetto after over three years as a consultant and Key Account Manager for a technology company specialized in integrating and processing hospitality data sources to provide solutions that support hotel teams in data aggregation and visualization.

Daniel Lofton

Director of Hospitality Solutions, Americas

Daniel has served in several roles throughout his time at Duetto over the last four years, with the lion’s share of his time spent in consulting, working in the field with Duetto customers to optimize their revenue strategy. Prior to that, he was a Director of Revenue Management at Landry’s Hospitality where he worked with both their gaming and non-gaming hotels. Over the course of seven years with them, he handled property openings, brand transitions, and expansions.