Duetto Pulse Report

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

Looking at OTB, once again the short term pick up helps to reduce the gap to STLY for the region as we start into the month of August. The last Pulse Report (looking at June 29 to July 12) had August at 70% and at this point in time (July 13-26) it is at 68% behind STLY. September, October and November are at 67%, 57% and 55% respectively. Based on the slowing trend for net pick up, monitoring the development of the remainder of Q3 as well as Q4 will perhaps see a reverse of this trend.

Greater China improved from a 74% deficit to 71% compared to STLY. Similarly in South East Asia we see an improvement from 74% to 72%.

Likely due to Victoria reinstating lockdown measures, Oceania did not show a positive development when compared to STLY values with the difference increasing from 56% to 59% for August.

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (July 13-26).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Going into the month of August, we observe a 95% increase in net pick up for August stay dates compared to the last Pulse Report (June 29 to July 12), which is in line with the short-term trend we have observed in the past few months.

Despite reports of new outbreaks in the region, bookings with lead times within the upcoming 3-4 weeks are still coming in. Regionally, we see the biggest increase coming from the Greater China region with a 199% increase.

However, looking beyond the current month, net pick up slowed significantly compared to the previous Pulse Report. September shows 40% less pick up, while pick up for October, November and December has decreased 70%. Relevant to note, this is not due to an increase in cancellations but less new bookings, specifically in the South East Asia region where net pick up for those months dropped by 78% since the last Pulse Report.

Within our reporting between the end of April and June, we have been seeing on average 29% increases in net pick up. The most recent two weeks of data (July 13-26) we are focusing on in this Pulse edition, however, only showed an average 8% increase in bookings for stay dates in July through to the end of 2021.

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Compared to the last edition of the Pulse Report, where we continued to see growing consumer confidence as reflected by increasing web traffic, although being concentrated in the immediate three month window.

The past two weeks of data (July 13-26) do not see this trend continuing. On average, for stay dates in August, September and October, we observe an increase of 4%, however this is only positive because of a 16% increase for August stay dates while September and October show 1% and 4% decreases respectively.

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

After some weeks where we observed the region reduction of deficit compared to STLY, the past weeks of data show an increase. August pace increased from 60% to 62% behind STLY, September increased from 56% to 61% and October from 45% to 53%.

While the UK & Ireland saw a reduction in deficit for August from 72% to 69%, likely due to the pent up travel demand as the region opened much later than mainland Europe, September and October saw an increase in deficit. To highlight the difference in regional vs city performance, we have London at 90% behind STLY for August while regional properties are at 42% behind STLY.

Similarly for DACH, the last minute pick up is helping August’s deficits decrease down from 57% to 55% since the last edition of the Pulse Report. However, we can see how consumers are averse to making plans beyond the next few weeks. The deficit in pace for September and October grew marginally from 55% and 50% to 59% and 54% respectively since the previous edition of the Pulse report.

Southern Europe showed the same trend with August improving from 68% to 64% but September and October increasing from 71% and 65% to 75% and 71% deficit versus STLY.

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks (July 13-26).

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Going into August following some weeks of relative stability, we see positive trends for all stay months until the end of the year in terms of net pick up for the region. Focusing on the upcoming three months, August increased by 52%, September and October by 26 and 27% respectively.

The UK & Ireland increased from 44% and 14% to 80% and 55% for stay dates in August and September respectively. DACH sees consistent growth with 66% on average net pick up increase for the upcoming three months compared to the last Pulse report (June 29 to July 12).

Southern Europe continues to see growth as well with an 88% increase in net pick up for August and 130% for September. Moving forward, we expect that the new outbreaks and government restrictions developing from July 25 across the region will have significant negative impacts on the stable developments we are reporting now.

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Web searches continue to increase for immediate future months in line with what we have seen in the past editions of the Pulse with increases of 47%, 22% and 17% for August, September and October respectively, compared to the last Pulse Report (June 29 to July 12).

We continue to monitor the evolution of this key metric but generally speaking we would like to see growing consumer confidence reflected in higher appetite (hotel searches) to book across the region which would surely convert into a larger volume of net bookings. Considering the recent events following July 25 it will be key to observe if a pivot from Europe-wide travel back to domestic only will impact hotel search volumes by country.

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As net new bookings (shown above) continue to lag behind last year, it is no surprise that the pace shown here is not recovering at any meaningful speed. August and September remain more than 50% behind STLY and despite October and November’s slight improvement in new bookings compared to the previous Pulse Report, Q4 2020 as a whole remains 46% behind.

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Moving into the month of August, we see a slowdown in short-term bookings across the region. New bookings for stays in both August and September saw a slowdown as compared to the most recent Pulse Report (June 29 to July 12), while the slightly longer term bookings window saw an uptick with stays for October and November increasing since the prior weeks by 32% and 34% respectively.

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Interestingly, despite the slowdown in new bookings for the short-term stay window, web traffic suggests there was interest. Website visits for both August and September doubled as compared to previous weeks. It will be interesting to see if in the weeks to come these visits end up converting into new bookings for stays in North America.

This graph shows the evolution of reserved status room night volume for future stay dates broken down by stay month during the last four Pulse Reports, spanning eight weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance compared to same time last year for the most recent week’s data.

As with the other regions of the world, LATAM remains significantly behind in terms of OTB reservations as compared to STLY. This is expected to continue until we see a substantial increase in new booking activity across the region.

This graph shows the volume of net room night pick up (new bookings minus cancellations) broken down by stay month made during the most recent two weeks.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

LATAM continues to face difficulty with new bookings. The most recent two weeks of data (July 13-26) show a further slowdown in new booking activity for the region, with August now slowing by an additional 41% as compared to the prior two weeks. All future months show this slowdown to varying degrees. September 2020 shows the least amount of drop off with only a 4% dip compared to the prior weeks of data, while November and December show the most significant slowdown at 73% and 71% respectively.

This graph shows volume of web traffic data (bookings, regrets, and denials on brand.com) for future stay dates, broken down by stay month.

The percentage indicates the variance in comparison to the last Pulse Report.

Interestingly, we see a similar trend in the most recent data in LATAM to what we see in North America. Despite a slowdown in new bookings, web traffic shows a significant increase in visits for the short-term window. Visits for stays in the month of August show an increase compared to the previous weeks of 190%. Both September and October also show healthy increases in web traffic, 106% and 60% respectively. As with North America, it will be interesting to see if and when these visits begin to convert in a meaningful way.