Group business represents a significant revenue stream for many hotels, but accurately forecasting this segment can be a formidable challenge. Unlike transient bookings, which are often driven by individual travelers and shorter lead times, group business involves larger blocks of rooms, longer booking windows, and unique demand patterns. These complexities make it difficult to predict group occupancy and optimize pricing strategies.
The challenges with forecasting group business
One of the main challenges in forecasting group business lies in the disconnect between group and transient demand data. Traditional forecasting models primarily focus on transient business, neglecting the nuances of group demand. Group data typically only impacts forecasts after blocks are confirmed, leading to a delayed understanding of the true demand landscape.
In addition, group bookings are subject to fluctuations and uncertainties. The number of rooms picked up from a group block can vary due to cancellations, no-shows, or changes in group size. This "wash" factor can significantly impact occupancy and revenue, making it critical for you to anticipate and account for in your forecasts.
Developing group forecasts
Recognizing these challenges, we’re developing a suite of machine learning forecasting models in BlockBuster to address the complexities of group business and enhance total house forecast accuracy.
- Group wash will predict the number of rooms from a group block that won’t be picked up, allowing you to adjust your availability and demand forecasts accordingly. By incorporating this "wash" factor upfront, you can avoid overestimating demand and optimize pricing strategies.
- Pipeline conversion will predict the likelihood of conversion for each RFP. It will allow you to factor in potential group demand earlier, improving the accuracy of rate recommendations and operational planning.
- Unforeseen demand/future business will predict future group RFPs based on historical trends, market conditions, and other factors. By anticipating untapped demand, you can proactively adjust your strategies and capture potential revenue opportunities.
Take your group forecasting to the next level
By integrating group demand data into your forecasting process you’ll be empowered to make informed decisions, align your transient pricing strategies, and therefore maximize your overall profitability.
Our investment in BlockBuster is helping hoteliers to unlock revenue and profit potential.
Now’s the time to take the next step and discover what these exciting developments can mean for you and the management of your group business.
